The
Wall Street Journal published a letter from "Sixteen Concerned Scientists" who question conclusions of the vast majority of climate scientists that global climate change is happening (the mean temperature of the earth is increasing) and that the cause is human; they further question the vast majority of scientists (including those of us in the social sciences) who see the global warming and the consequent effects on the environment as a very bad thing. (Just ask the citizens of Vanuatu.) So who are these sixteen concerned people?
Bottom line: They are not an impressive group and they are not representative of the overwhelming consensus within the scientific community. With the caveat that I have neither the time nor resources to do a systematic fact checking of the following information, I still think it is worthwhile to show the information below that was collected from online sources. If anyone has more reputable evidence that contradicts any of the information below, I will be happy to publish a comment that reflects that.
And a further note: I have met the "expert," Ivar Gievar, quoted in the letter signed by the sixteen. Yes, the man is a Nobel Laureate. No, he is not a climate scientist, either. The talk I heard him give was stunning in its logical flaws and incorrect assertions. Even I -- also not a climate scientist! -- could tell that he was not making credible scientific claims. But I am competent to assess one claim that Gievar made because that was an assertion about the social consequences of global warming. He said that it could be better for the world to be warmer. In other words, global warming could have good consequences for people around the world. For that claim to make sense at all, a whole bunch of not probable assumptions must be true. Chief among them in my mind is the implicit assumption that people are mobile. If your island country sinks under rising sea levels, you just move to another counter; if your rivers and lakes dry up and you have no rain, you just move some where else. If the plants you grow and the animals you raise no longer grow in your locale, you just find greener pastures, so to speak. Really? Everybody's going to throw open their borders for climate refugees? Resources will miraculously appear to provide for those who are not lucky enough to "benefit" from global climate change? Sell the man a bridge in Brooklyn.
Back to the actual signatories:
Color key:
Black -- Wall Street
Journal's Identification of the Signatory
Red -- comment based
on quick web research; not fact checked.
1. Claude Allegre
“former director of the Institute for the Study of the
Earth, University of Paris”
Summary of extensive debunking here:
which includes stating that he makes things
up, states the obviously incorrect, and “improving the data”
Age 74
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
2. J. Scott Armstrong
“cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the
International Journal of Forecasting”
Professor of Marketing, Wharton School – he is
doing short-term data fits, but the global climate change model is a long term
model.
“We conclude by showing that the AGS
principles of forecasting [Armstrong's method] are too ambiguous and subjective
to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In
summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS
conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of
polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy
debate.”
Armstrong complains that his papers were not
cited and his methods were not used by climate scientists
Age 74
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
3. Jan Breslow
“head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and
Metabolism, Rockefeller University”
Age 68
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
4. Roger Cohen
“fellow, American Physical Society”
Recently retired from ExxonMobil
an expert in technology development and
commercialization
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
5. Edward David
“member, National Academy of Engineering and National
Academy of Sciences”
President of Research and Engineering for
Exxon Corporation, 1977-1985
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
6. William Happer
“professor of physics, Princeton”
“Happer has been on the board of the George C.
Marshall Institute since at least 2002, and is currently its director. The institute receives a sizable portion of
its funding from ExxonMobil. Out of an
operating budget of about $800,000, an average of $91,428 per year from 2001-07
comes directly from ExxonMobil. They
also receive $250,000 per year from the Scaife oil fortune, and we see almost
half of the Institute is funded by oil money.”
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
7. Michael Kelly
“professor of
technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.”
PhD in solid state physics
Age 63
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
8. William Kininmonth
“former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology”
a retired Australian meteorologist
“According to a search of 22,000 academic
journals, Kininmonth has not published any research in a peer-reviewed journal
on the subject of climate change.” --- http://desmogblog.com/william-kininmonth
Lavoisier Group member
“The Lavoisier Group is a global warming
skeptic organisation, based in Australia.” “The group is
closely associated with the Australian mining industry, and was founded in 2000
by Ray Evans, then an executive at Western Mining Corporation” “Most of the members are over 60 years
old.” “In 2001 Australian economist John
Quiggin wrote that the Lavoisier Group is ‘devoted to the proposition that
basic principles of physics...cease to apply when they come into conflict with
the interests of the Australian coal industry.’ ” http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Lavoisier_Group
Age ???
Calls himself a Climate Scientist
9. Richard Lindzen
“professor of atmospheric sciences, MIT”
MIT atmospheric physics. Reasonable to call
him a climate scientist
Lindzen's graduate students describe him as
"fiercely intelligent, with a deep contrarian streak."
Age 71
10. James McGrath
“professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University”
Polymer science
Board of Directors, ChemFab Inc.
Customers
include: Irving Oil, BP Canada
Petroleum, Marathon Oil,Esso Petroleum Canada, Shell Canada Products, Sunoco,
Union Gas Limited
Age 78
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
11. Rodney Nichols
“former president and CEO of the New York Academy of
Sciences”
“His industrial consulting has included the
research laboratory of GTE and Shell Technology Ventures.”
He is on the CRDF Global Board of Directors,
with funders including Bechtel (mining, oil and gas), King Abdullah University
for Science and Technology (KAUST), King Fahd University of Petroleum and
Minerals, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Qatar National Research
Fund
Associated with the Marshall Institute (with
Happer)
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
12. Burt Rutan
“aerospace engineer, designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne”
Age 68
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST (also not a scientist)
13. Harrison H. Schmitt
“Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S. senator”
Age 76
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
14. Nir Shaviv
“professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem”
Age 39
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
15. Henk Tennekes
“former director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service”
Studies turbulence (aeronautical engineering
& meteorology)
Objected to increased computational power for
meteorology based on biblical texts
“Stressed the limited predictability of
complex systems and the limited value of predictions based on scientific
modeling.” Wikipedia
Age 76
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
16. Antonio Zichichi
“president of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva”
Nobel Prize laureate Hans Bethe on Zichichi:
“excellent organizer, mediocre physicist”
Committed to demonstrating that there is no
contradiction between science and his strongly held Catholic faith.
"There is a need to do more work, with a
lot more rigour, to better the models being used."
Age 83
NOT A CLIMATE SCIENTIST
(By the way, note that, with the exception of Shaviv, this are rather old people.)
----------------------------------------------------
But maybe certain things don't require that one is a climate scientist. The first step in analyzing data, I have always told my students, is to "eyeball the data." What do you see? So, here is a picture from http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
Is there a long term slope in temperature?
Is it up or down?
Is this subtle?
And then, and if we're just counting letter signers, I'll bet these folks against the sixteen skeptics any day They are the members of the National Academy of Sciences who signed a letter printed in Science magazine, a major scientific journal, in which stated:
(i) The planet is warming due to increased
concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our
atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington
does not alter this fact.
(ii) Most of the increase in the concentra-
tion of these gases over the last century is due
to human activities, especially the burning of
fossil fuels and deforestation.
(iii) Natural causes always play a role in
changing Earth’s climate, but are now being
overwhelmed by human-induced changes.
(iv) Warming the planet will cause many
other climatic patterns to change at speeds
unprecedented in modern times, including
increasing rates of sea-level rise and altera-
tions in the hydrologic cycle. Rising concen-
trations of carbon dioxide are making the
oceans more acidic.
(v) The combination of these complex
climate changes threatens coastal communi-
ties and cities, our food and water supplies,
marine and freshwater ecosystems, forests,
high mountain environments, and far more.
P. H. GLEICK,* R. M. ADAMS, R. M. AMASINO,
E. ANDERS, D. J. ANDERSON, W. W. ANDERSON,
L. E. ANSELIN, M. K. ARROYO, B. ASFAW,
F. J. AYALA, A. BAX, A. J. BEBBINGTON,
G. BELL, M. V. L. BENNETT, J. L. BENNETZEN,
M. R. BERENBAUM, O. B. BERLIN, P. J. BJORKMAN,
E. BLACKBURN, J. E. BLAMONT, M. R. BOTCHAN,
J. S. BOYER, E. A. BOYLE, D. BRANTON,
S. P. BRIGGS, W. R. BRIGGS, W. J. BRILL,
R. J. BRITTEN, W. S. BROECKER, J. H. BROWN,
P. O. BROWN, A. T. BRUNGER, J. CAIRNS JR.,
D. E. CANFIELD, S. R. CARPENTER,
J. C. CARRINGTON, A. R. CASHMORE,
J. C. CASTILLA, A. CAZENAVE, F. S. CHAPIN III,
A. J. CIECHANOVER, D. E. CLAPHAM, W. C. CLARK,
R. N. CLAYTON, M. D. COE, E. M. CONWELL,
E. B. COWLING, R. M COWLING, C. S. COX,
R. B. CROTEAU, D. M. CROTHERS, P. J. CRUTZEN,
G. C. DAILY, G. B. DALRYMPLE, J. L. DANGL,
S. A. DARST, D. R. DAVIES, M. B. DAVIS, P. V. DE
CAMILLI, C. DEAN, R. S. DEFRIES, J. DEISENHOFER,
D. P. DELMER, E. F. DELONG, D. J. DEROSIER, T. O.
DIENER, R. DIRZO, J. E. DIXON, M. J. DONOGHUE,
R. F. DOOLITTLE, T. DUNNE, P. R. EHRLICH, S. N.
EISENSTADT, T. EISNER, K. A. EMANUEL, S. W.
ENGLANDER, W. G. ERNST, P. G. FALKOWSKI,
G. FEHER, J. A. FEREJOHN, A. FERSHT, E. H.
FISCHER, R. FISCHER, K. V. FLANNERY, J. FRANK,
P. A. FREY, I. FRIDOVICH, C. FRIEDEN, D. J.
FUTUYMA, W. R. GARDNER, C. J. R. GARRETT,
W. GILBERT, R. B. GOLDBERG, W. H. GOODENOUGH,
C. S. GOODMAN, M. GOODMAN, P. GREENGARD,
S. HAKE, G. HAMMEL, S. HANSON, S. C. HARRISON,
S. R. HART, D. L. HARTL, R. HASELKORN,
K. HAWKES, J. M. HAYES, B. HILLE, T. HÖKFELT, J. S.
HOUSE, M. HOUT, D. M. HUNTEN, I. A. IZQUIERDO,
A. T. JAGENDORF, D. H. JANZEN, R. JEANLOZ,
C. S. JENCKS, W. A. JURY, H. R. KABACK, T. KAILATH,
P. KAY, S. A. KAY, D. KENNEDY, A. KERR, R. C.
KESSLER, G. S. KHUSH, S. W. KIEFFER, P. V. KIRCH,
K. KIRK, M. G. KIVELSON, J. P. KLINMAN, A. KLUG,
L. KNOPOFF, H. KORNBERG, J. E. KUTZBACH, J. C.
LAGARIAS, K. LAMBECK, A. LANDY, C. H.
LANGMUIR, B. A. LARKINS, X. T. LE PICHON, R. E.
LENSKI, E. B. LEOPOLD, S. A. LEVIN, M. LEVITT,
G. E. LIKENS, J. LIPPINCOTT-SCHWARTZ, L. LORAND,
C. O. LOVEJOY, M. LYNCH, A. L. MABOGUNJE, T. F.
MALONE, S. MANABE, J. MARCUS, D. S. MASSEY,
J. C. MCWILLIAMS, E. MEDINA, H. J. MELOSH,
D. J. MELTZER, C. D. MICHENER, E. L. MILES,
H. A. MOONEY, P. B. MOORE, F. M. M. MOREL,
E. S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, B. MOSS, W. H. MUNK,
N. MYERS, G. B. NAIR, J. NATHANS, E. W. NESTER,
R. A. NICOLL, R. P. NOVICK, J. F. O’CONNELL, P. E.
OLSEN, N. D. OPDYKE, G. F. OSTER, E. OSTROM,
N. R. PACE, R. T. PAINE, R. D. PALMITER,
J. PEDLOSKY, G. A. PETSKO, G. H. PETTENGILL,
S. G. PHILANDER, D. R. PIPERNO, T. D. POLLARD,
P. B. PRICE JR., P. A. REICHARD, B. F. RESKIN,
R. E. RICKLEFS, R. L. RIVEST, J. D. ROBERTS, A. K.
ROMNEY, M. G. ROSSMANN, D. W. RUSSELL,
W. J. RUTTER, J. A. SABLOFF, R. Z. SAGDEEV,
M. D. SAHLINS, A. SALMOND, J. R. SANES,
R. SCHEKMAN, J. SCHELLNHUBER,
D. W. SCHINDLER, J. SCHMITT, S. H. SCHNEIDER,
V. L. SCHRAMM, R. R. SEDEROFF, C. J. SHATZ,
F. SHERMAN, R. L. SIDMAN, K. SIEH, E. L. SIMONS,
B. H. SINGER, M. F. SINGER, B. SKYRMS,
N. H. SLEEP, B. D. SMITH, S. H. SNYDER, R. R. SOKAL,
C. S. SPENCER, T. A. STEITZ, K. B. STRIER,
T. C. SÜDHOF, S. S. TAYLOR, J. TERBORGH,
D. H. THOMAS, L. G. THOMPSON, R. T. T JIAN,
M. G. TURNER, S. UYEDA, J. W. VALENTINE,
J. S. VALENTINE, J. L. VAN ETTEN, K. E. VAN HOLDE,
M. VAUGHAN, S. VERBA, P. H. VON HIPPEL,
D. B. WAKE, A. WALKER, J. E. WALKER,
E. B. WATSON, P. J. WATSON, D. WEIGEL, S. R.
WESSLER, M. J. WEST-EBERHARD, T. D. WHITE,
W. J. WILSON, R. V. WOLFENDEN, J. A. WOOD,
G. M. WOODWELL, H. E. WRIGHT JR., C. WU,
C. WUNSCH, M. L. ZOBAC
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5979/689.full.pdf (I don't know if you need a subscription to get to that page or not since I subscribe.)
My politically conservative friends and I will differ on what policies should or should not be used to address problems of the global commons, but I really hope that they do not fall into the trap of believing that the climate skeptics are somehow as reasonable as the vast majority of scientists who see global climate change happening, happening because of humans, and having likely deleterious effects.
